UK GAS-Prices rise on reduced flows from Norway, LNG
British wholesale gas prices rose on Tuesday morning due to an undersupplied system caused by robust demand and a fall in flows from Norway and liquified natural gas (LNG) send-outs.
* British wholesale gas for day-ahead delivery was up 2.75 pence per therm at 41.25 p/therm at 0805 GMT, while gas for immediate delivery was 2.50 p higher at 41.50 p/therm.
* May contract rose by 2.15 p to 40.50 p/therm.
* The British gas system is 13.8 million cubic metres (mcm) undersupplied, with demand at 260.4 mcm and supply at 246.6 mcm/day, National Grid data shows.
* Norweigian flows through the Langeled pipeline are down again and are expected at 49 mcm/day on Tuesday.
* “The lower nomination (on Tuesday) could be due to the unplanned outage at Aasta Hansteen (field),” Refinitiv analysts said.
* Norwegian gas system operator Gassco has revised the details of the outage at Aasta Hansteen on Tuesday, modifying its duration to 1-2 weeks from 1-2 days.
* Norweigian gas producer Equinor said, however, that gas output will be increased by 16 mcm/day between April 10-14 due to increased field availability, without disclosing the field name.
* After a sharp reduction in Langeled flows on Friday morning which led to prices jumping, Langeled flows were at normal levels by Monday.
* LNG flows are also down today by around 14 mcm/day from Monday, according to Refinitiv Eikon data.
* LNG arrivals into Europe remain strong, however, with the possibility of additional cargoes due to recent price spikes, Refinitiv analysts said.
* Britain expects to receive at least six LNG cargoes between April 9-20.
* Wind generation is forecast to fall slightly on Wednesday to 5.7 gigawatts, Elexon data shows, which is a bullish factor for day-ahead gas prices too.
* On the demand side, temperature forecasts for Tuesday, Wednesday and the weekend are lower than previously expected, indicating larger gas consumption than predicted before.
* In the Dutch gas market, gas for May delivery up 0.52 euro at 16.45 euros per megawatt hour.
* In the EU carbon market, benchmark Dec-19 contract was 0.77 euro higher at 25.08 euros a tonne.