UK GAS-Prices down on revised temperature forecast, healthy LNG outlook
British wholesale gas prices declined on Thursday morning due to a slightly higher temperature forecast for this weekend and next week and a healthy liquefied natural gas supply outlook.
* Within-day gas was down 0.15 pence at 37.35 p/therm at 1005 GMT.
* Day-ahead gas fell by 0.20 pence to 37.25 pence per therm.
* The slight decline is due to a revised temperature forecast for this weekend and next week which is slightly higher than previously, a healthy liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply outlook and bearish coal prices, traders said.
* “Underlying drivers remain bearish such as record high storages and strong LNG to all north-west Europe destinations,” Refintiv analysts added.
* LNG send-out is forecast at a relatively low level of 37 mcm per day but this could change in April as Britain expects seven tankers to arrive between March 30 and April 7.
* Average temperature in Britain are expected to be 8.2 degrees Celsius on Thursday, 0.6C below earlier expectations. But the weekend temperature has been revised up by 0.3C and next week by 0.1C, Refinitiv Eikon data shows.
* The system is undersupplied, with gas demand forecast at 232.2 mcm per day and flows at 221.4 mcm/day, National Grid data shows.
* There are some reduction in flows from Norway due to both planned maintenances and as a reaction to lack of demand.
* Peak wind generation is forecast at 4.6 gigawatts (GW) out of total 12.1 GW capacity on Thursday and is expected to be at 5 GW on Friday, Elexon data shows.
* April gas is down 0.25 pence at 37.00 p/therm.
* The benchmark Dec-19 EU carbon contract down 0.15 euro to 21.70 euros a tonne.
* Day-ahead gas at the Dutch TTF hub 0.18 euro lower at 14.77 euros per megawatt hour.