INTERNATIONAL
Other significant findings in AEO2019 include
The United States becomes a net energy exporter by 2020. In the Reference case, the United States becomes a net exporter of petroleum liquids in 2020 as U.S. crude oil production increases and domestic consumption of petroleum products decreases. The United States continues to be a net exporter of natural gas and coal (including coal coke) through 2050.
U.S. net exports of natural gas continue to grow as liquefied natural gas becomes an increasingly significant export. In the Reference case, U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and pipeline exports to Canada and to Mexico increase until 2030 and then flatten through 2050 as relatively low, stable natural gas prices make U.S. natural gas competitive in North American and global markets.
Natural gas and renewable energy shares grow in U.S. electric generation. EIA’s Reference case highlights the impact of sustained low natural gas prices and declining costs of renewables on the electricity generation fuel mix. The natural gas share maintains its lead and continues to grow, increasing from 34% in 2018 to 39% in 2050. The renewables share, including hydroelectric generation, also increases from 18% in 2018 to 31% in 2050, driven largely by growth in wind and solar generation. Renewables grow to become a larger share of U.S. electric generation than nuclear and coal in less than a decade.
Increasing energy efficiency across end-use sectors keeps U.S. energy consumption relatively flat, even as the U.S. economy continues to expand. Delivered U.S. energy consumption grows across all major end-use sectors, with electricity and natural gas consumption growing fastest.