Asean+6 countries are future market for natural gas exporters
The Doha-headquartered Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) has stated global energy demand is expected to increase by 26 percent and as much as 38 percent in the Asean and East Asia region. According to the GECF’s estimations, these countries together will account for almost 60 percent of the global energy demand increase between now and 2040.
Sharing GECF’s energy outlook views at the recently concluded ASEAN Energy Business Forum held in conjunction with the 37th annual ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting in Bangkok, the GECF Senior Energy Forecast Analyst Dr. Hussein Moghaddam noted the projections show that, despite substantial reliance on coal, natural gas will be the only hydrocarbon to increase its share in their energy mix from 10 percent now to 14 percent over the outlook period. He mentioned that the natural gas demand in Asean countries as well as in Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea will increase by 87 percent, to about 1300 bcm in 2040.
As for gas production, more than 17 tcm of the recoverable reserve is proved in the region. And about 4 tcm unconventional hydrocarbon reserves are certified. About two-thirds of the total gas resource base within the region has not yet been explored.
Dr Moghaddam said Asean+6 countries, which include 10 Asean member countries plus Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, and the Republic of Korea, are expected to be a major market for natural gas exporters, with combined pipeline and LNG imports expected to more than double by 2040. Today, Asean and Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea are the largest gas importers with 28 percent of global trade and by 2040 with a trade share of 41 percent.
Dr. Moghaddam elaborated on the rising LNG trading volume in the Asia Pacific, and how countries of the region are increasingly expressing intentions of having their own LNG trading hubs rather than oil-indexing contracts or hubs prices in other continents. This can potentially have a fundamental change in gas trade on a global scale, he said.
The GECF delegate also attended a panel discussion entitled “Policy Dialogue between LNG Exporting and Importing Countries” alongside Professor Jun Arima from the ERIA, and Masaomi Koyama, SOE Leader, Director of Overseas Energy Infrastructure Office, Commissioner’s Secretariat, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ANRE), Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), Japan.
The ASEAN Energy Business Forum is the premier annual gathering of the Asean energy sector, enabling government officials, policymakers and global private sector organizations to engage in public-private partnership cooperation discussions, project development, and business collaboration meetings.